Comments on Selenian Boondocks: Marburger's Speech

Jon B.,Good find! There are lots of good points. ...

2008-03-21T09:26:00.000-07:00

Jon B.,
Good find! There are lots of good points. The key one though is that while NASA's current plan might survive long enough to return people to the moon, there are other approaches they could take that would be far more beneficial to the nation as a whole.

~Jon

I went back and took another look at the t/Space L...

2008-03-21T04:03:00.000-07:00

I went back and took another look at the t/Space Lunar Roadmap presentation, Creating a Frontier. Seems like that sort of lines up with some of Marburger's points and yours, here.

jon (berndt)

John,Thanks for the kind words. Thought-provoking...

2008-03-19T08:19:00.000-07:00

John,
Thanks for the kind words. Thought-provoking was exactly what I was trying for. :-)

~Jon

A really thought-provoking analysis.

2008-03-18T19:54:00.000-07:00

A really thought-provoking analysis.

Michael -- the LEO "market" consists of weather sa...

2008-03-10T17:22:00.000-07:00

Michael -- the LEO "market" consists of weather satellites, imaging & remote sensing satellites, communications satellites, and GPS satellites. The reason that this market hasn't solved the transportation problem is that its demand is inelastic. Weather satellites, for example, are worth many billions of dollars on-orbit -- but there don't need to be very many of them. High launch costs have a tiny impact on their overall value, and a dramatic drop in launch costs would not spur demand for many additional weather satellites. Same goes (to a greater or lesser extent) for all of the other LEO industries. None of them particularly care about launch costs. The only entities that *do* care are the launch companies themselves, which of course would like the costs to remain high. High costs = high margins, and if the demand is constant (that is, it does not change with respect to cost) then high costs = maximum profit. Low costs would be a money-losing proposition for the launch companies, without adding much value for the other market players.

The only thing that will change this is if highly elastic LEO markets can be developed (eg. manufacturing or tourism). In elastic markets, lower costs create much higher volumes, meaning that launch companies can increase their overall profits even as margins fall. Without elastic markets in LEO, the industry will never generate enough pressure to solve the transportation problem. Now that businesses like space tourism are on our side of the horizon, there is finally beginning to be significant pressure in that direction.

In regards to the space station, I'd have to say that the answers to your queries are A: No, and B: No. Hopefully Bigelow will allow us to begin asking some follow-up questions along those lines...

Now is the ripest time for COTS to be successful, ...

2008-03-10T12:52:00.000-07:00

Now is the ripest time for COTS to be successful, if (and that's a big if) there is a real market to begin with. I've always contended that NASA needs to "abandon LEO" in order to credibly create a "market" for commercial transportation services. You simply can't expect investors to make resources available when NASA competes directly in the market.

By creating, and now expanding, the so-called "gap" NASA has effectively "abandoned LEO."

Of course, the question remains as to whether the space station will a.) be a large enough market in and of itself, and b.) be made accessible enough for those seeking low cost access to LEO as a principal part of their business case.

Just where is the LEO "market" and why hasn't it generated enough pressure on its own to solve the transportation problem?

Frank,Yeah, it will be interesting to see how COTS...

2008-03-10T09:31:00.000-07:00

Frank,
Yeah, it will be interesting to see how COTS plays out. The sooner the commercial market is able to step up to the plate, the more serious the questions are going to be asked of NASA. Unfortunately, you'll also likely see more pushback from NASA because even if everyone there were a perfect saint, they have lots of institutional disincentives against change.

~Jon

Keith,Thanks for the link. Yeah, Rand also pointe...

2008-03-10T09:30:00.000-07:00

Keith,
Thanks for the link. Yeah, Rand also pointed out that and some other grammatical errors. Thanks for the heads up.

That's what I get for posting so late at night. *sigh*

~Jon

A perceptive analysis.However, the biggest obstacl...

2008-03-10T06:25:00.000-07:00

A perceptive analysis.
However, the biggest obstacles to any "lunar COTS" is NASA's own internal resistance to the commercial world. The LEO COTS program is struggling just to get it's tiny $300 million.
But if COTS can susscessfully demonstrate crew and cargo access to the ISS, then the issue will be: why does the government need to buy Orion and Ares for the same purpose at billions more/
That day will tell the tale for the future of NASA and its commercial-friendly rhetoric.

The biggest problem seems 2 B the image of a "spac...

2008-03-09T21:45:00.000-07:00

The biggest problem seems 2 B the image of a "space company" that NASA has built up when in reality most bloggers would rather have a "technology company which also uses space". Until that changes, a return to the O'Keiffe days may be hard won.

John Marburger isn't serious about anything, certa...

2008-03-09T18:04:00.000-07:00

John Marburger isn't serious about anything, certainly not science, or he would have resigned long ago.

He's trying to salvage his reputation long past the time it is salvageable.

The biggest barrier remains low cost space access,...

2008-03-09T17:19:00.000-07:00

The biggest barrier remains low cost space access, an area NASA does not seem interested in pursuing. If Dr. Marburger is serious, he will promote this area.

Posting a link on NASA Watch. BTW Griffin is not ...

2008-03-09T15:45:00.000-07:00

Posting a link on NASA Watch. BTW Griffin is not NASA's "president" ;-)

I am quickly becoming a big Marburger fan....

2008-03-09T11:39:00.000-07:00

I am quickly becoming a big Marburger fan....